Free-roaming cheetah census revealing south africa cheetah decline in grassy field, observed through camera trap.

Candid Camera Trap Study Reveals Disheartening Decline in South Africa’s Cheetah Population

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Written by Seth Sebastian

2026-09-26

A comprehensive camera trap survey conducted over three and a half years has uncovered a dramatic decrease in South Africa‘s cheetah population, revealing significantly fewer numbers than earlier estimates suggested. Utilizing 389 strategically placed camera traps, the study produced a staggering 5.2 million images in an effort to understand the dynamics of these elusive cats.

Despite deploying artificial intelligence for initial image classification, the process required human oversight to ensure accuracy. “AI is great, but it’s only great about 70% of the time,” explained Marna Smit, project coordinator at Ashia Cheetah Conservation, which conducted the Free-Roaming Cheetah Census, as reported by Daily Maverick.

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Rare king cheetah with unique stripe markings caught in a survey.
The survey caught an ultra-rare king cheetah, marked by the unusual stripes on their coat.
Cheetah walking along a fallen tree trunk in a grassy field at dusk.
A cheetah walks along a fallen tree trunk in a grassy field at dusk.

Understanding the Decline

The cheetah population in South Africa is categorized into four groups: captive individuals, cheetahs in private game reserves and national parks, semi-protected populations in Kruger National Park (KNP) and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP), and the free-roaming individuals found on private and commercial farmlands near the borders with Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe. The latter population was the main focus of Smit’s research.

Four cheetah brothers resting together in the wild.
Four brothers.

Living in less glamorous conditions than their counterparts in established reserves, these cheetahs frequently roam near remote communities and farms, sometimes clashing with human interests. “Cheetahs get blamed because you see them more often,” explains Smit. In reality, caracals, jackals, and leopards are often responsible for livestock losses.

Man kneeling in grassy field while attaching a trail camera to a metal post.
A man with a beard and cap kneels in a grassy field while attaching a trail camera to a vertical metal post.

Cheetahs are known for their shy demeanor and minimal aggression towards humans, representing one of the least confrontational big cat species. Nevertheless, their encounters with humans can be unpredictable.

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Cheetah standing in wooded area, looking directly at the camera with tail raised.
A cheetah stands in a wooded area, looking directly at the camera with its tail held upright.

The survey’s findings suggest there might be as few as 83 adult free-roaming cheetahs, highlighting a significant population decline, a stark contrast to the previous estimate of 600 mature individuals. “This is the first correct, or the most correct, baseline that we’ve ever had,” Smit emphasized to the Daily Maverick. Establishing a baseline is crucial for determining whether the population is experiencing a significant decrease or if these numbers reflect the carrying capacity of the fragmented habitat in South Africa. This decline poses serious questions for conservation efforts moving forward.

Cheetah sitting on trunk of leaning tree in dry, wooded savanna.
A cheetah sits on the trunk of a leaning tree in a dry, wooded savanna landscape.

Source: petapixel.com

Frequently asked questions

How long did the camera trap survey last?

The comprehensive camera trap survey was conducted over three and a half years.

What was revealed about South Africa’s cheetah population?

The survey uncovered a dramatic decrease in South Africa’s cheetah population, revealing significantly fewer numbers than earlier estimates suggested.

What are the challenges faced by free-roaming cheetahs?

Free-roaming cheetahs often roam near remote communities and farms, sometimes clashing with human interests, although they are one of the least confrontational big cat species.